Latest Trends in Worker Demographics
In this session at NCCI’s AIS Virtual Conference, Barry Lipton, FCAS, MAAA, Practice Leader and Senior Actuary, reviewed new and updated NCCI research on worker demographics and their potential impact to workers’ compensation.
The Aging Workforce and Its Implications
By 2028, nearly 10 percent of the workforce will be made up of those ages 65 and older. This age group will see the largest growth between 2018-2028 (projected 6.1 million more workers), closely followed by those ages 25-44, who will see a projected growth of 4.8 million.
The growth in the aging workforce has led to an increase in accident frequency for those ages 65 and older, while the frequency has fallen the most for those ages 25-44. Older workers lose more time for work-related injuries too. The average worker will lose eight working days for an injury, while those ages 65 and older, lose an average of 14 days.
Falls, slips, trips and overexertion have been the leading causes of time spent away from work. Older age groups saw an average of 17 missed workdays due to falls, slips and trips, and an average of 20 missed workdays due to overexertion.
Gender and Education
In the last five years, cumulative changes in employment growth have varied based on age and gender. For those ages 55 and older, men saw a larger growth in employment rates. For those age 25-44, women saw a larger growth in employment rates.
College degree attainment also varies based on age and gender. Within the 60 and older age group, more men than women hold college degrees, but as the workforce ages, more women above age 50 will hold college degrees. Women’s participation in the labor force at older ages will likely increase, as well.
Short-tenured employees suffer a disproportionate share of total workplace injuries. New workers with under five years of experience account for a third of all injuries, but only make up a fifth of all employment. There is a concern that this share of injuries could increase post-coronavirus. Workers with five or more years of experience account for another third of all injuries, but make up half of all employment.
The Importance of These Demographics
- Worker-centric models require knowing the injured worker.
- Comorbidities are more likely for older workers.
- Women tend to have different comorbidities than men.
- Turnover and tenure are relevant to underwriting.
- Historical patterns are shifting due to economic shock.
- Safety management and loss prevention can put extra focus on short-tenured workers and older workers.
Find the full statistical analysis of these worker demographics presented by NCCI, here.